{
  "environment": {
    "python": "3.13.7",
    "numpy": "2.2.6",
    "pandas": "2.3.1",
    "sklearn": "1.7.1",
    "matplotlib": "3.10.5"
  },
  "forecasting": {
    "scope": "Synthetic daily data; fixed model, no Prophet/ARIMA/LSTM execution",
    "future_invariance": true,
    "invalid_lags_rejected": 2,
    "folds": [
      {
        "fold": 1,
        "train_end": "2025-04-30",
        "test_start": "2025-05-01",
        "test_end": "2025-05-30",
        "one_step_ridge_mae": 0.5185622852100643,
        "fixed_origin_ridge_mae": 0.4894462179714774,
        "one_step_lag7_mae": 0.8896557969885085,
        "fixed_origin_lag7_mae": 1.5493887753775992
      },
      {
        "fold": 2,
        "train_end": "2025-05-30",
        "test_start": "2025-05-31",
        "test_end": "2025-06-29",
        "one_step_ridge_mae": 0.4607421365750644,
        "fixed_origin_ridge_mae": 0.5343367435532891,
        "one_step_lag7_mae": 0.7026600126377275,
        "fixed_origin_lag7_mae": 1.5039269761266878
      },
      {
        "fold": 3,
        "train_end": "2025-06-29",
        "test_start": "2025-06-30",
        "test_end": "2025-07-29",
        "one_step_ridge_mae": 0.5169777797084824,
        "fixed_origin_ridge_mae": 0.488815315911282,
        "one_step_lag7_mae": 0.7692797308745317,
        "fixed_origin_lag7_mae": 1.602057987934547
      }
    ]
  },
  "anomalies": {
    "scope": "Synthetic shifted points, not real incidents or guaranteed future false-positive control",
    "future_invariance": true,
    "centered_window_failed_invariance": true,
    "zero_variance_is_unscored": true,
    "contamination_preserves_raw_scores": true,
    "calibration_threshold": 0.6389334358121188,
    "true_positives": 38,
    "false_positives": 3,
    "false_negatives": 2,
    "true_negatives": 397,
    "precision_at_20": 1.0
  },
  "search": {
    "scope": "One synthetic seed, equal candidate count not equal time; no Optuna execution",
    "development_size": 675,
    "test_size": 225,
    "candidates_per_strategy": 12,
    "cv_folds": 3,
    "test_evaluations": 1,
    "selected_strategy": "grid",
    "selected_test_auc": 0.9761773072060682,
    "best": {
      "grid": {
        "cv_auc": 0.9747023809523809,
        "params": {
          "max_depth": null,
          "max_features": "sqrt",
          "min_samples_leaf": 1
        }
      },
      "random": {
        "cv_auc": 0.9742809734513275,
        "params": {
          "min_samples_leaf": 4,
          "max_features": 0.5,
          "max_depth": 8
        }
      }
    }
  }
}